Sustainability, Energy, Resources, and
Housing
To
most people, sustainability means the indefinite maintenance of present day
living standards. This can not happen. Within 50 years, the high cost of energy
and other raw materials will cause the cost of living to sky rocket so that
most people will not be able to afford what we have today. The result may be
anarchy and chaos. The only society that can really survive is a society based
on planning, ultimate thrift, hard work, and technology. Running out of energy
and other raw materials is inevitable. Malthus predicted that populations would
over run food supply and famine would result. His predictions have been delayed
by the usage of fossil fuels and mined fertilizers. However as populations
increase and these materials are depleted, his predictions will come true.
There can be only temporary definitions of sustainability because as the threat
increases, the countermeasures will have to be more desperate. A society that
can be maintained for 200 years must cut energy consumption to levels which can
be sustained by solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable sources. It must take
countermeasures against catastrophic events such as Global warming. It must
recycle and use with thrift all raw materials. The bulk of the population must
give up single family houses and private transportation.
Resource Depletion--------Numbers computed
from Encyclopedia Britannica of years available for different mineral resources
are: 64 years natural gas, 333 coal, 89 tungsten, 30 silver, 108 molybdenum, 43
zinc, 495 vanadium, 29 tin, 35 lead, 159 manganese, 44 mercury, 224 aluminum
ore, 78 bismuth, 48 cadmium, 112 iron ore, 24 gold, 110 Uranium, 117 nickel, 46
petroleum, 212 phosphate fertilizer, 79 antimony, 1019 lithium, 26 gold, 230
platinum group, 62 copper, 62 sulfur, and 634 years potash fertilizer.
Obviously the numbers are contentious because of the varying estimates and the
popular viewpoint that the Earth's resources are infinite. Some materials will
be depleted by increased demand and the availability of others will be extended
by the discovery of new deposits. Many of the resources must be imported by the
Global Warming--------There several
plausible scenarios whereby Global Warming could kill millions or even billions
of people. Therefore we should not hope for finding more fossil energy. One of
these mechanisms is by rising of the seas, which would drown
Energy Depletion-------- Energy is the
keystone for our society. Without it, we can not survive. The present energy
consumption for the
Oil------- There is a group of
retired geologists that are saying that the Earth has only about 1 trillion
barrels of recoverable, cheap oil left. Others say there is more like 2
trillion barrels. Presently the world is using about 27 billion barrels oil/yr.
However it has been predicted that consumption rates may go as high as 40
million barrels/yr fairly quickly. Most of the cheap oil left is in the hands
of the Arab countries. Since their resource is limited they will charge high
prices for what is left. Tar sands, heavy oil, oil from coal, and shale oil,
which will make up part of the difference. However the cost of development will
make fuels refined from them much higher in cost than present fuels.
Furthermore, production rates will be low. Also, the energy needed to produce
some of these fuels is so great that they are not energy effective. Presently
the
Natural Gas-------Natural gas is not a
solution to the oil problem because we have limited supplies of that also.
According to the estimates that I have seen we would have about 60 years left
at present consumption. However any attempt to replace oil or coal with natural
gas would greatly increase the depletion rate. Furthermore limitations in
distribution and quantity of supply may cause serious gas shortages long before
the resource is completely gone. By 2020 shortages of heating oil and natural
gas may cause many homes in the
Coal------Supplies of coal will
probably last longer than any other fossil fuel. However it is the worst fuel
for causing greenhouse gases. It is costly to convert it to liquid fuel. Mining
coal requires large quantities of oil energy. It has been predicted that soon
coal may require more energy to mine it than it produces. Nevertheless we
should convert some of our locomotives back to coal because it is essential to
be able to move grain and other heavy materials.
Nuclear Energy------- Presently nuclear
energy provides about 8% of our total consumption. In order to supply all of
our energy needs, we would need more than 10 times as many plants as we have
now. We have not even decided how to store our present levels of waste. Nuclear
energy is finite and expendable. Any moral society would save nuclear fuel for the
ultimate threat to human survival rather than wasting it on a profligate
society. Nuclear energy does have the advantage that it can provide both heat
and power in Winter. One good way to use nuclear energy would be to construct a
city heated by the waste heat around the nuclear electric plant. The plant
would be run only for about four months in the Winter and then would be shut
down for the Summer. In Summer, solar mirror boiler plants would generate
electric power. In this way, our supplies of fissionable material could be
stretched by at least a factor of five.
Wind Energy---------Wind energy is much
cheaper than solar energy. Wind energy goes up as the fourth power of wind
speed. Therefore there is little energy at speeds below 10 mph. The number of sites
which can furnish the necessary average velocities is unknown. Furthermore the
storage of energy needed to make wind a constant source is very expensive.
Although it is essential that we immediately start building large numbers of
windmills we can not make the assumption that wind will cure all of our energy
problems. It is possible that future development of windmills may go toward
mills, which compress air or refrigerants or pump water. Such mills may be much
simpler and cheaper than grid synchronized electric mills, the direct action
may be more efficient, and copper would be saved.
Solar energy______Solar energy may cost
four times as much as wind energy. However it will be essential to use it
because there will not be enough energy from wind and because solar is much
more ubiquitous than wind. Even in the
Biomass-------Energy from biomass
may be obtained from, crop residues, manure, biomass energy crops, solid waste,
and trees. Wood is the traditional and the eternal energy source. Biomass is
the only way we have to fix carbon from the atmosphere, and wood is the only
biomass that can store energy from summer to winter, or from year to year. Wood
is a solid fuel that could be used to fuel trains or cars. I see wood charcoal
as being a major transportation fuel. Trees help prevent Global Warming, are
essential to nature, are a prime building material, and are a raw material for
chemicals and plastics. We need to plant a surplus of trees at lowest possible
cost, ASAP. However the amount of biomass that can be grown is limited by land,
fertilizer, and the human will to plant. Biomass plantations can grow more fuel
per acre than forests and also may be able to produce large quantities of food.
We must exploit biomass to the fullest. However there is not enough land to
supply all of our energy needs. It seems unlikely that we can grow much more
than 15 quads/yr.
Hydrogen---------Hydrogen is only a
small part of the solution to our problems because it must be made from other
energy sources, it is costly to manufacture, and is difficult to store and
transport. The biggest advantage of hydrogen is that in fuel cells it permits a
high efficiency in converting to electrical power. However the means of
obtaining the hydrogen from solar cells or biomass are inefficient enough that
hydrogen can hardly be thought of as a savior. It may be more useful to
synthesize Methanol from Solar, wind, and Biomass because it is so much easier
to store and transport and can also be used in fuel cells. Hydrogen gained its
popularity as an alternate fuel partly because of the belief that it makes no
pollution. Pollution from combustion will become less important as consumption
is reduced by scarcity and as increased efficiencies further reduce pollutant
output.
Cost--------Although we must
invest heavily and immediately in wind, solar, and biomass we must remember
that the cost will be enormous and that we can never reach our present demand.
However Energy starvation and Global Warming are much more serious threats than
war. The duty cycle for solar is probably not over 15% on average and that of
wind in many locations may not be better than 50%. If poor locations are used
for wind, then the duty cycle will be even lower. This increases capital costs
sharply in comparison to fossil fuel, biomass, or nuclear plants, which can
work 80% of the time. Energy storage costs will make it difficult to have
energy all of the time. Nuclear, wind, and solar all have the problem that it
is difficult to make vehicular fuels. Batteries are useful but are inadequate
because of cost and weight penalties. Can you imagine running a bulldozer or an
airplane from batteries? Making liquid fuels or hydrogen from these sources
poses problems in cost and inefficiency. Methanol is one of the easiest fuels
to synthesize from solar or biomass but in terms of corrosion and energy/lb it
is a greatly inferior to gasoline or fuel oil. In converting to wind, solar,
and biomass the costs in terms of dollars, raw materials, and energy will be
enormous. There will be millions of heat exchangers, pressure vessels, solar
mirrors, and windmill towers. We can start thinking about a sum equal to the
national debt, say four trillion dollars but the costs will keep spiraling
upward from there.
Conservation--------The most important
reason for this paper is to point out that although there are people working on
wind, biomass and solar, there is no one who is working seriously on the
measures needed for conservation.
Morality-------All of us have
benefited from the composite work and output of our society. We were cared for
by our parents and in turn should care for our progeny. We have a moral duty to
reshape society and technology so that our grandchildren and their children can
enjoy a happy life without fossil fuels. Providing for the future is the best
of all games that we could play.
The
general tactics, which are needed to secure sustainability through thrift and
productivity, are as follows:
1
Massive changes in the Federal budget. It is essential to remove money from the
military, social programs, and the Bureaucracy and put it into Apartment
houses, windmills, and the other needs of Sustainability. New weapons such as
airplanes that require large amounts of oil should be canceled. Interventions
in other countries such as the one in Kosovo should be avoided on the grounds
of insufficient oil. One way of doing this is to integrate Sustainability
programs into the present organizations. For example the military, the
universities, the school system, and all the bureaucracies should have the task
of innovative conservation and energy production built into their job
descriptions.
2
Changes in the tax system. It is imperative that taxes be shifted to energy and
other natural resources so that conservation will become an important part of
our lives. We need sales taxes, gasoline taxes, carbon taxes, kilowatt taxes,
etc. These taxes should be used to increase the income tax threshold so that
people pay less income taxes. We need capital gains taxes to tax the rich.
Taxes are essential to finance Government Funded research and development. The
resultant heavy tax burden to the poor can be reduced by subsidizing apartment
houses and ecomindiums. Certain kinds of food can be subsidized. Jobs must be
available for all. If car insurance, license fees, and some running costs were
paid for by Gas taxes then the total cost of running a car could be put on a
per mile basis. This would greatly improve conservation without raising taxes.
3
Clumping and Decentralization. Massive trade means that materials must be
shipped long distances at considerable energy cost. Therefore it is essential
that each building, city, locality, or state should produce as much of its food
and manufactured materials as possible in order to reduce shipping distances.
Apartment buildings can, by shared walls and ceilings reduce heating costs by
50%. They also facilitate car pools and buses. Apartment complexes which
contain factories and free land can engage in manufacturing and farming without
transportation.
4
Retrogression. We need to look back and use some of the tactics used 100 years
ago to get by on reduced energy. We need to look at steam engines, draft
animals, and trains as part of the solution. Low velocity transportation
eliminates wind drag losses.
5
Universal employment and reduction of parasitism. We need a Civilian
Conservation Corps devoted to the mass planting of trees. Work programs should
be used to eliminate welfare. We need to reduce employment in bureaucracy,
legal work, social work, and paper work. We need to increase employment in
agriculture, manufacturing, and Engineering. Presently only 10% of the
population are doing useful work. Every convict and every welfare recipient
should be manufacturing something useful.
6
Government Funded
7
Subsidization of the poor and elderly. It is imperative that programs other
than cash payments or food stamps be developed to help the poor. These should
include work programs, housing programs, and food packages. The bureaucracy
must be reduced to a minimum and everyone must be useful. Social work and the
cost of living can be reduced by the development of Clans (Cooperatives).
8
Reform of Education. Education must be simplified and directed toward
Sustainability. Pre med and pre law should be abolished. Horticulture and
Silviculture should be taught in grade school. Class projects and themes must
be organized around agriculture. Universities must be constrained to study and
do research on the problems of sustainability.
9
Sustainable Housing. Special complexes must be designed and built which reduce
monetary and resource costs to a minimum. These include Agromindiums,
Ecomindiums, Factorymindiums, and Noah's
10
Synergism. One product, facility, or organization must accomplish several
goals. For example sewage treatment should accomplish water recycling, energy
storage, making fertilizer, irrigation for crops, fish culture, and recreation.
All heating systems must be either Cogeneration or Comanufacturing.
Comanufacturing must be made into a central study in all universities so that
building heat requirements can be totally eliminated.
10
Thrift in Government. All subsidies for houses should be canceled. Subsidies
for flood, tornadoes, and earthquakes should be canceled in dangerous areas.
Laws and taxes should be simplified. Many subsidies should be eliminated. Farm
subsidies should be based on tree planting or other sustainability programs.
11
Land protection. Urban sprawl is a destroyer of sustainability because
spreading out requires energy for transportation and heating. Nature and
agricultural land are lost to houses. Laws must be made to protect land.
12
Research Laboratories. Every state should have a giant research laboratory
which develops products and facilities which enhance sustainability. Synergism
should be a constant goal of such development.
Products
and projects that should be developed
1
Noah's
2
The Ecomindium. This would be a one building Condominium built in a compact
format so that the geometric heating reduction would be about 2 to 1. By using
water recirculation, fossil fuel heat pump, cogeneration, biomass, solar, and
wind energy, it should be possible to make the building use less than 25% of
normal consumption and to be nearly independent of utilities. A suitable
configuration would be 8 units, 2 stories plus basement, with 4 units/floor in
square format. The basement or an attic room could be used for communal activities.
The complex should be surrounded by an acre of land set up with large gardens.
The social structure should be pre defined as a cooperative with strict rules.
3
The Agromindium. This would be like an ecomindium but on more land. Food
production with both full and part time participants would a major business
activity. All sewage would be used for fertilizer, irrigation, and to recycle
water.
4
The Factorymindium. This would be an ecomindium with a factory attached. Of
course the factory and agricultural activities could be combined in one unit.
All of these complexes must use cogeneration, comanufacturing, and other energy
synergistic combinations.
5
The Ecohouse. Single family houses can never be models of sustainability.
However they are easier to finance and could incorporate many of the features
needed in larger facilities. Such features will be needed for a long time to
improve present houses. An Ecohouse would probably use the basement as living
space. The above ground house would have a greenhouse on the south side and
might be used only in mild weather. There are many compromises.
6
Windmills. Windmills that pump water, air, or refrigerants are cheaper and more
efficient than electric windmills because the constant speed problem is
avoided, because they generate the desired power directly, and because in some
installations their outputs could be combined with other windmills and with
solar power. Electric windmills should be put into mass production for high
wind areas.
7
Solar powered boilers. Solar boilers of many sizes and temperature ranges
should be designed. Lower temperature boilers require more collector area but
have lower cost collectors and process more heat useful for distillation and
space heating. These installations should be designed as part of buildings.
8
Cogeneration. Universal Cogeneration could cut overall energy consumption by
25%. Units need to be built in all sizes from houses to large complexes.
Cogeneration is a good complement to summer solar power production.
9
Fossil fuel heat pump. Such units are capable of achieving a 200% efficiency
for space heating. If used for air conditioning they reduce peak electric power
loads in summer.
10
Ground and ground water heat sources. Such sources can greatly improve the
efficiency of both air conditioning and heating systems.
11
Massive tree planting. Trees are the best alternative fuel because they are
storable and because they are useful in many other ways.
12
Biomass energy systems. Soft biomass in the form of crop residues, leaves,
straw, waste paper, etc, plus sewage can be used to make biogas with an
efficiency of about 50%. This efficiency could be increased if the by-product
heat could be used for greenhouses or space heating. Biomass could also be used
in a steam power plant cogeneration system. For best efficiency these units
should always be designed as building equipment.
13
Detergents which are fertilizer. If all cleaning fluids are fertilizers and all
sewage is used for crop production then a recycling of chemicals is achieved.
14
Improved Engines. Engines with lower friction, higher efficiency, and lower
pollution should be developed. Examples; A car engine which can be used both
for cars and for cogeneration. A low pollution, efficient, long life lawnmower
engine which could also be used for cogeneration. A split engine for cars to
improve coasting friction should be built. There are many other examples.
15
Fuel cells. Fuels cells are more promising for cogeneration in buildings than
for cars. Their development should be accelerated but should not interfere with
improved engine development or engine driven cogeneration development.
16
Free piston engines. Such devices are useful both in building energy systems
and in cars. They rival fuel cells and may be cheaper. Accelerated development
is crucial.
17
Small steam power systems. Steam power is immediately useful for biomass fueled
cogeneration systems. They should be in mass production.
18
Refrigerant development. The perfect system has not been developed. I could
come up with several ideas for improved refrigeration.
Sample
calculations
Solar-----If
solar cells cost $4000/peak kw, the duty cycle is 20%, and 1 kwhr=10,000 btus
then the capital investment to produce 1 quad is
4000*10^15/(.2*365*24*10,000)=$228 billion. For 20 quads the cost would be $4.6
trillion dollars. However this does not cover cost of installation, mounting,
inverters, and storage. These factors would probably double costs. The cost for
solar heating and for focussed solar mirror boiler systems would be cheaper
than solar cells. However it would be difficult to fund much more than 20
quads.
Wind---Recent
data from a
Data-----
1 acre=.4047 hectares, 1 kwhr=3.6*10^6 joules=3412 btus, 1 btu=1055 joules, 1
quad=10^15 btus =1 trillion cuft natural gas=171.5 million barrels of oil, 1
barrel=5.25 million btus,, 1 kwhr=approximately 10,000 btus crudely based on
power plant efficiency and heat pump COP, It takes very approximately 10,000
acres wood to fuel a 1 megawatt power plant which will produce about 8000
megawatt hrs/yr. USA 272 million pop, 3.7 million sq miles or 2.37 billion
acres area, uses 95 quads energy/yr
Kermit Schlansker, P.E. kssustain@provide.net 734
971 5283
More Information and one page sheets
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Blueprint for Sustainability |
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Actions that must be taken to ensure Sustainability |
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Factual information about energy |
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Sheet on natural gas |
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Blueprint |
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Importance of Conservation |
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Awaken Students |
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Retirement Homes |
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The Threat |
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Conservation |
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Valuable Internet Addresses |
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Some serious questions |
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My Personal information |
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Email the Author |
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